econ.kpan.dev
A feed of economic insight cards. Each one takes a single derived metric from real data and answers a question you actually care about — in one honest read.
The economy
Sahm Rule · Recession Nowcast CLEAR
Are we in a recession?
No — the signal is calm. 0.07
as of Jun 2026
Yield Curve · 10-Year minus 3-Month FLAT
Is a recession being predicted?
Flat — no clear signal either way. 0.67%
as of Jul 2026
CPI Inflation · Prices vs a Year Ago ELEVATED
Is inflation under control?
Inflation is running above target. 4.2%
as of May 2026 · elevated since May 2026
Real Wages · Pay vs Prices SLIPPING
Are paychecks beating inflation?
Pay is just barely trailing prices. -0.6%
as of May 2026 · slipping since May 2026
Housing Affordability · Payment vs Paycheck STRETCHED
Is the typical house affordable?
Buyers are stretching past comfort. 29.0%
as of Jul 2026 · stretched since Jul 2026
Card Delinquencies · Household Strain NORMAL
Are households falling behind?
Delinquencies are around their long-run norm. 2.9%
as of Jan 2026 · normal since Jan 2026
The markets
Market Mood · Composite of 3 Gauges MANIA
Is the market running on greed?
All three gauges point to mania. 82
as of Jul 2026 · mania since Jul 2026
Buffett Indicator · Market Cap ÷ GDP FROTHY
Are stocks in a bubble?
This is froth — stocks are pricey vs GDP. 218%
as of Jan 2026 · frothy since Jan 2026
VIX · The Fear Gauge CALM
Is the market too calm?
Calm waters. Little fear priced in. 16.6
as of Jul 2026
High-Yield Spread · Risk Appetite REACHING FOR YIELD
Is the bond market greedy?
Investors are barely paid to take risk — peak greed. 2.75%
as of Jul 2026 · reaching for yield since Jul 2026